Friday, November 28, 2008

Britain's debt - HOW will it be sold?

The following is the conclusion of an article by James Saft of Reuters published in today's IHT linked here, just exactly as this blog has been WARNING, over and over again:

My best guess is that even with a fat premium, the world will have more than it can handle of pound-denominated British government risk in the coming years.

On the other side of the equation, you have to wonder which buy-to-rent investor or potential home buyer is out there who a) is a good risk, b) possesses a 20 percent down payment and c) is willing to buy an asset that is losing 2 percent of its value a month.

So, it's looking as if the fall in British house prices will be further than expected.

If you look at the U.S. experience where a higher percentage of loans was securitized and thus tended not to end up on bank balance sheets, that is bad news for the banks.

Bank liabilities in the United States are about 20 percent of the size of the economy. In Britain, the figure is 285 percent.

Ask yourself then what might happen to Britain.

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